Embassy of Portugal in Romania

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

2015 estimates and 2016 forecasts

Banco de Portugal, the Portuguese Central Bank, foresees a rise in GDP of 1.6% in 2015, and 1.7% in 2016, while the IMF and the OECD anticipate a slightly lower growth rate. The IMF expects the GDP to grow 1.6% in 2015, and 1.5% in 2016, dropping 0.1% per year to a growth of 1.2%, in both 2019 and 2020, whilst the figures for the OECD point to an increase of 1.69% YOY in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The European Commission (EC), on the other hand, shows more optimistic data: a rise of 1.7% for both 2015 and 2016. According to Banco de Portugal the average inflation rate is expected to reach 0.6% in 2015, then 1.1% and 1.6%, in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The average inflation rate forecasts from the other three institutions are lower, with the lowest being the OECD with 0.548% in 2015, and 0.653% in 2016. The unemployment rate will decline, say the three international entities. The values for the EC, OECD and IMF stand at 12.6%, 12.3% and 12.27%, in 2015, and 11.7%, 11.33% and 11.3%, in 2016.

 Estimativas e Previsões

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